Abstract

This report is a collection of economic and environmental data for both the Waikato region and New Zealand. This data has been used to set up an input-output table for the Waikato region’s economy, incorporating various environment-economy linkages. A scenario based environment-economy futures model has also been developed to assess the possible implications of future economic change within the Waikato region.

The information collected as part of this project provides a ‘snapshot’ of the existing Waikato economy and its associated environmental linkages; this information can be used as a point of comparison when assessing the outcomes of possible economic change. The estimated 2004 GRP for the Waikato region is $12.5 billion with the number of full time equivalent employees (FTEs) estimated at 152,000. This is the fourth largest regional economy in New Zealand being responsible for some 9.0 per cent of GDP in 2004.

Waikato Region Economy-Environment Futures Report [PDF, 306 KB]

Contents
Executive summary		v
Methodology		v
The Waikato region's economy and environment		v
Waikato region's economy 2026		vi
Waikato region's environment 2026		vi
1	Introduction	1
1.1	Objectives	1
1.2	Issues	1
2	Approach	2
2.1	Establish database	2
2.2	Establish major industry trends and prospects	6
2.3	Economic and environmental impacts of major industry trends and prospects	6
PART A: The Waikato region economy 2003-2004		7
3	The Waikato region economy 2003-2004	7
3.1	The Waikato region economy	7
3.1.1	Gross regional product, employment and productivity by key industries	7
3.1.2	Consumption	9
3.1.3	Balance of trade	10
4	The Waikato region's economic dependence on the environment 2003-2004	11
4.1	Introduction	11
4.2	Land use	12
4.3	Delivered energy	12
4.4	Energy related air emissions	13
4.4.1	Carbon dioxide (CO2)	13
4.4.2	Nitrous oxide (N2O)	14
4.4.3	Methane (CH4)	14
4.5	Solid waste	15
PART B: Qualitative and quantitative projections for the Waikato region 2006-2026		16
5	Quantitative projections of economic growth	16
5.1	Introduction	16
5.2	Time series analysis	16
5.3	Population projections	17
5.4	Export projections	17
6	Literature search on Waikato futures	18
6.1	The dairy industry	19
6.2	The forestry industry	19
6.2.1	Forestry and logging	19
6.2.2	Wood and wood products manufacturing	19
6.2.3	Paper and paper products manufacturing	20
6.3	Transport	20
6.4	Other service industries	20
6.4.1	Education	20
6.4.2	Utilities	21
6.5	Mining and quarrying	21
6.6	Construction	21
6.7	Tourism	21
6.8	Summary of growth prospects	23
7	In-depth interviews	24
7.1	Summary of growth prospects	23
7.2	The interview process	24
7.3	Key results	24
8	Analysis of results	27
8.1	Dairy cattle farming	27
8.2	Dairy manufacturing	27
8.3	Forestry and logging	27
8.4	Wood and paper manufacturing	27
8.5	Utilities	28
8.6	Tourism	28
PART C: Scenario projections for the Waikato region 2006-2026		29
9	Scenario results	29
9.1	Introduction	29
9.2	Impacts on population and economy	30
9.3	Population	30
9.3.1	Employment	30
9.4	Gross regional product	31
9.5	Impacts of the economy on the environment	32
9.6	Land use	32
9.6.1	Delivered energy	36
9.6.2	Energy related air emissions	36
9.6.3	Solid waste	39
10	Policy implications and recommendations	42
10.1	Policy implications	42
10.2	Recommendations	44
Appendix A		44
Appendix B		50
Appendix C		55
References		56